How to Make Better Decisions in a Complex World

1. Why Most People Struggle with Decision-Making

We live in a world full of choices:

• Career: Should you switch jobs or stay?
• Investments: Should you buy a house or save money?
• Relationships: Should you continue or let go?

Yet, many people make poor decisions due to three key reasons:

1.1 Intuition vs. Logic: The Illusion of Thinking

• Studies show that 90% of decisions are based on intuition, not rational analysis.
• Intuition works well for simple problems (e.g., choosing food), but fails in complex situations (e.g., financial planning).

1.2 The Paradox of Choice: More Options, More Anxiety

• A study found that when a supermarket offered 24 types of jam, customers were less likely to buy than when only six options were available.
• Too many choices lead to decision paralysis and regret.

1.3 Overconfidence Bias: We Think We Know More Than We Do

• Research shows that people overestimate their knowledge, especially in investing and business.
• Overconfidence leads to ignoring risks and making impulsive choices.

2. How to Make Smarter Decisions

✅ 2.1 Use Probability Thinking Instead of Gut Feeling

• Life is not deterministic—it’s probabilistic.
• Wrong approach: Judging decisions based on results alone (“This person succeeded, so their choice must be right”).
• Better approach: Evaluate the probability of success for each option and choose the one with the best expected outcome.

Example:

• You are considering changing jobs.
  • Company A offers higher pay but frequent layoffs.
  • Company B offers stability but lower salary.
• Instead of just choosing the highest salary, analyze long-term risks and rewards.

✅ 2.2 Set "Decision Stop-Loss" to Avoid Emotional Traps

• Many people stick to bad decisions because they’ve already invested time or money (sunk cost fallacy).
• Solution: Before making a decision, set a clear exit strategy to prevent emotional bias.

Example:

• You invest in a stock and set a rule: “If it drops 10%, I will sell.” This prevents emotional decision-making.
• You start a relationship and decide: “If after six months we still have no shared goals, I will move on.”

✅ 2.3 Use Inversion Thinking: Avoiding Failure is Easier Than Guaranteeing Success

• Instead of asking, “How can I succeed?”, ask, “How can I fail?” and avoid those mistakes.

Example:

• Investing: Instead of asking, “How do I make money?” ask, “How do I avoid losing money?”
• Career: Instead of asking, “Which industry has the most potential?” ask, “Which industries are most likely to disappear?”

✅ 2.4 Apply Eastern Wisdom to Reduce Decision Anxiety

2.4.1 Daoist Thinking: Go with the Flow, Not Against It

• Wrong approach: Trying to control everything and forcing things to work.
• Better approach: Observe trends, adapt, and move with the natural flow.
• Laozi said: “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.”

Example:

• If your industry is declining, don’t resist change—adapt and seek new opportunities.

2.4.2 Buddhist Thinking: Accept Uncertainty and Reduce Regret

• Wrong approach: Overanalyzing decisions, fearing mistakes, and delaying action.
• Better approach: Accept that uncertainty is part of life, and commit fully once a decision is made.
• Buddha said: “The past is gone, the future is not here. Only the present matters.”

Example:

• If you choose a career path, stop thinking “What if I had chosen differently?” Instead, focus on making the best of your current path.

3. Conclusion: How to Make Better Decisions

1️⃣ Use probability thinking instead of gut feelings.
2️⃣ Set decision stop-loss points to avoid emotional traps.
3️⃣ Use inversion thinking—prevent failure first.
4️⃣ Go with the flow instead of forcing control.
5️⃣ Accept uncertainty, make a choice, and commit fully.

“The best decisions don’t guarantee you’ll always be right, but they ensure you’ll be right more often in the long run.”